Could Metal Shortages Hold Up Electrification?

Many countries around the world are looking to the electrification of transport to help meet their decarbonization goals. Nowhere is this more true than in the EU, where Norway has legislated for the phase out of sales of fossil fuelled vehicles by 2025. Other countries, both inside and outside the EU, are only slightly behind Norway’s ambitious target. However, is the change even possible on that timescale? A survey led by Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, on behalf of the European Commission has found that a shortage of critical metals could put these deadlines in danger if action is not taken quickly.

The drive for electrification has led to an large increase in the critical metals required to produce the electric motors and electronics for these vehicles. Current raw material extraction will not meet that demand, and future extraction plans will not come online in time. Even an increase in recycling will not be enough. Only a small proportion of the metals are currently recycled from end-of-life vehicles at this time. Critical metals, such as dysprosium, neodymium, manganese and niobium, are vital to the vehicle industry and the economies of the countries that produce them.

“Neodymium and dysprosium usage has increased by around 400 and 1,700 percent respectively in new cars over the period, and this is even before electrification had taken off. Gold and silver, which are not listed as critical metals but have great economic value, have increased by around 80 percent. The EU is heavily dependent on imports of these metals because extraction is concentrated in a few countries such as China, South Africa and Brazil. The lack of availability is both an economic and an environmental problem for the EU, and risks delaying the transition to electric cars and environmentally sustainable technologies.”, says Maria Ljunggren, Associate Professor in Sustainable Materials Management at Chalmers University of Technology.

The European Commission has recently put forward the Critical Raw Materials Act recently, which emphasises the need to enhance cooperation with reliable external trading partners and for member states to improve the recycling of both critical and strategic raw materials. It also stresses the importance of European countries exploring their own geological resources.

For example, in Sweden the state-owned mining company LKAB reported on significant deposits of rare earth metals in Kiruna at the start of the year. Successful exploration enabled the company to identify mineral resources of more than a million tonnes of oxides – which they now describe as the largest known deposit of its kind in Europe. The find includes the discovery of neodymium which, among other things, is used in magnets in electric motors.

The new survey and the database provides decision-makers, companies and organisations with an evidence base to support a more sustainable use of the EU’s critical metals. A major challenge is that these materials, which are found in very small concentrations in each car, are economically difficult to recycle.

“If recycling is to increase, cars need to be designed to enable these metals to be recovered, while incentives and flexible processes for more recycling need to be put in place.”, says Ljunggren.

With current raw material production levels there will not be enough critical metals in future – even if recycling increases. This is the finding of a major survey led by Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, on behalf of the European Commission.